美元疫情后几乎是0利率, 疫情后空前量化宽松,引爆通胀。FED BALANCE SHEET翻倍+
通胀既是经济问题,也是社会,政治和国际问题。
经济问题,大家都知道,成本上升,效率降低,
社会问题,很多人都是FIX INCOME 或类似FIXED INCOME, 比如退休的,养老金, 原来100元可以买到的东西,现在要109元。购买力缩水到91%
政治问题,人手一票,日子很难过了,是否要影响选票?选民是否更容易制造动乱?
国际问题,地缘政治紧张,战争,核武器等等,很多国家在去美元化。升息可以保美元国际储备货币地位,有助于提升世界对美国的信心。
老掐打擦边球. The simple rule is when fed rate is increased, dollar value increases and all other assets including stocks, housing, gold, etc decrease in value. Plus, by looking at the world economy, US economy has so far fared much better than any other developed countries' (EU, China, etc) such as its strong employment condition, plus all 老掐 just said. All these have made the stronger dollar trend become much stronger. On the other hand, when gold is down, crude oil is softening in price, and Canadian housing bubble ranks one of the worst in the world, BoC must be more hawkish if it wants Canadian dollar to maintain a stable rate with US dollar.